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Thread: Log In and VOTE for Actuary Running for CFC Ratings Auditor!

  1. #1
    Join Date
    Jul 2020
    Posts
    15

    Exclamation Log In and VOTE for Actuary Running for CFC Ratings Auditor!

    Please take the time to log in and vote for the person overseeing your CFC rating system!

    Dear CFC Voting Members,

    My name is Tony Li and I am running for Ratings Auditor. For those of you who do not know me, here is a short bio.

    Actuary for a Living

    I have a BMath from University of Waterloo with minors in statistics and economics. I am an actuary and study trends and manage multi-million dollar risks for my employer.

    Chess for Life

    I learned the rules of the game at the age of eight in the chess-rich city of Beer Sheva, Israel. However, it was not until ten years later that I played in my first CFC-rated tournament, squeaking out a 1243 performance rating as a young adult. Fortunately, adults can improve! With lots of hard work and commitment (in the form of a CFC Life Membership), I managed to peak at 2086 a decade later.

    In the family, we already have a pair of kids playing chess. It won’t be long before I am asked to play 3rd board in team matches!

    I also volunteer at my local chess club (Kitchener-Waterloo Chess Club). One of the more unique tournaments we now offer is the Kitchener Chess Marathon (7 rounds rapid and 12+ rounds of blitz over 2 days). Normally, towards the end of the tournament I will survey top players (GM Razvan Preotu, FM Victor Plotkin, FM Hans Jung to name a few) to hear if they would like more rounds for the following year’s edition. They are unanimous in their response - “No, that would be too much chess!”. How often do you hear that from titled players?

    My Focus as Ratings Auditor

    1. Maintain a statistically sound rating system that reflects player strength and tracks improvement/deterioration in play.
    2. Staying alert to risks to the rating system and address them proactively to minimize the need for large-scale manual intervention.

    The CFC rating system is facing a big challenge ahead. After a year and a half without OTB tournaments, the re-opening is likely to see abnormal rating impacts from vastly underrated juniors. I will be working proactively with the CFC leadership to implement measures to minimize the impact of this shock to the rating system.

    If you have any questions, please feel free to post it here or e-mail me at kwchessclub@gmail.com.

  2. #2
    Join Date
    Feb 2020
    Location
    Chilliwack, BC
    Posts
    1

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    Great post, Tony!

    It's awesome to have multiple people in the running who are passionate about ensuring the health of one of the CFC's greatest assets, and it's quite clear we both have the personal and professional experiences the take on the task. (Our bios are actually reasonably similar, right down to the chess club volunteering, and helping our children find a love for the game. Just different career paths, and about 600 rating points on my adult improvement journey it seems!)

    Your two points of focus are effectively the job description for the position: maintain a solid system, and stay alert. However, when you talk about "working proactively ... to implement measures" in regards to underrated juniors causing a shock to the rating system, I disagree that any jumping to put measures in place would be warranted. You believe that early measures would prevent the need for intervention, I suggest that said actions are intervention.

    The system in it's current state has done a remarkable job of maintaining equilibrium in spite of the constant barrage of rapidly improving juniors and the ebb and flow of chess popularity, so certainly the most reasonable first course of action would be to allow a working system to continue to work, would it not? What modelling do you have that suggests the system will break down with a temporary increase in concentration of rating-lagged players? For the most dedicated juniors who have taken part in the online rated events that I and many others have helped to put on over the past 18 months, the group that is likely to include the most rapid improvers, the COVID-19 rating incentive has served to provide increases to regular ratings to help mitigate some of the impact of this time away on our most coveted ratings.

    I believe a more patient and data-driven approach will be just as effective, if not more stable. Trust those who stood here before us and maintained a strong, established rating system in near-perfect equilibrium for almost a decade. Monitor with great scrutiny, and take action only when absolutely necessary! Certainly both approaches are capable of delivering a statistically sound system a year from now, but what of the players' trust in a system that is constantly requiring tinkering due to early over-corrections?

    One of the things I've been fortunate to learn from working full-time in the chess industry is that as chess lovers we can be a highly driven and action-oriented group. I've also unfortunately seen first-hand the impact of inaccuracies and blunders that could've been avoided with more patience and calculation.

    In any case, best of luck to you! The CFC and chess players in the country will be well-served by whomever the voting members elect, which is great because it looks like a close race!

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