We looked at all players with 25 to 50 rated games from 1 April 2007 to the present. There were 9,100 data points. We were looking to see if an outstanding performance in one event was an indicator that we had a fast-rising player on our hands worthy of bonus points.
We set the criteria at a 50 point gain in a single event as well as the attainment of a personal high rating and followed those players to their 75th rated game. It turned out that 83% of them did indeed continue to a higher rating and the average gain was a further 71 points.
The control group, all players with between 25 and 50 rated games, regardless of whether they had an outstanding single event, also gained further rating points. 71% of them went upwards and the average gain was 50 points.
This is against a background where the average rating of all players in the CFC remained static.
So, the tentative observation is that this group is under-rated. I have much more work to do on this before translating it into a recommendation to change the bonus point system.
Paul Leblanc
Treasurer, Chess Foundation of Canada
CFC Voting Member