5B6 - NEW MOTIONS - Olympic Team Selection (Moved Victor Plotkin,Seconded Fred McKim)

[Lyle Craver]

Motion 5B6. Motion #6. Bonus/penalties for performance in the last Olympiad:

(Points won subtracted by the expected number of points according to rating) multiplied by 10. 0 points if the player did not participate.

This bonus/penalty will be added/subtracted to any base rating number (last rating, average rating or highest rating). The number is rounded to the nearest 1. 0.5 is rounded to 1.

[Garland Best]

Could you please provide examples of this calculation from the past Olympiad, one where a person would be rewarded, and another penalized?

[Victor Plotkin]

From chess-result.com:

Bareev -9
Kovalyov +30
LeSiege +9
Hansen +22
Krnan +11

"Unfortunately" the numbers are too great and actually reduce the probability of this motion to pass.

[Michael Barron]

From chess-result.com:

Bareev -9
Kovalyov +30
LeSiege +9
Hansen +22
Krnan +11

"Unfortunately" the numbers are too great and actually reduce the probability of this motion to pass.

Looking at these numbers we could conclude that Evgeny Bareev was the worst player on the team...
Is it really the case?

Let's see:
Evgeny Bareev lost at the Olympiad 4 games:
Rd. SNo Name Rtg FED Rp Pts. Res. Bo.
3 19 GM Adams Michael 2738 ENG 2794 6,0 s 0 1
5 26 GM Dominguez Perez Leinier 2720 CUB 2839 7,5 s 0 1
10 45 GM Shirov Alexei 2673 LAT 2723 6,0 s 0 1
11 3 GM Caruana Fabiano 2808 USA 2838 7,0 s 0 1

All 4 games Evgeny played black, for the total rating loss -17 points.

Anton Kovalyov at the same 4 matches got 3.5 points:
Rd. SNo Name Rtg FED Rp Pts. Res. Bo.
3 52 GM Howell David W L 2665 ENG 2500 4,0 w 1 2
5 93 GM Bruzon Batista Lazaro 2623 CUB 2551 4,5 w 1 2
10 62 GM Kovalenko Igor 2651 LAT 2744 8,0 w 1 2
11 5 GM Nakamura Hikaru 2789 USA 2762 7,5 w ½ 2

All 4 games Anton played white, for the total rating gain +19 points.

No doubt, Anton played very well, taking advantage of all available opportunities.
But the question is:
Would Anton be able to achieve such great result, if Evgeny wouldn't take hit on the first board? :confused:

For me this motion looks like suggestion to select for hockey team only forwards who score the most, ignoring defense players.
Of course, a goalie doesn't score, and sometimes even can miss a shot, but would a team be better without him? :confused:

[Garland Best]

This clearly illustrates that this portion of the formula gives too much weight to a single tournament, where someone's result could be affected by health, unlucky pairings, etc.

I will be voting against this portion of the formula.

[Victor Plotkin]

I feel really sorry that numbers this year are too big. My proposal was made before the last Olympiad and I wanted the voting in August.

If we take the wider picture of last 4 Olympiads, we have (the National Team only):

2010: +1, +16, -1, +1, +3
2012: -11, +8, +9, +25, -7
2014: +9, 0, -19, +6, -7
2016: -9, +30, +9, +22, +11.

The average deviation is 10.2 points. In the other words, player is expected to win or to lose 10 points as a result of this motion. I do not believe, it's too big a number.

At the came time, some players play consistently better in team events. Kovalyov gained 9 points in 2014 and 30 points in 2016. Hansen gained 25 points in 2012, 0 points in 2014 and 22 points this year. Noritsyn gained 3 points in 2010, 9 points in 2012, 9 points in 2008. All these 3 players never under-performed in Olympiad. I do believe, this fact should be taken into account.

If some player under-performed in last Olympiad, it is more difficult for him to qualify for the next one. I find it logical and fair. However, penalty of 10 or even 20 points does not close the door for this player.

For example, this year the Russians played without Svidler, who had 3rd best rating in Russia (after Kramnik and Karjakin). The reason was his notoriously bad performances in many team events. He lost about 20 rating points in 2014. Nepomniachtchi had lower rating than Svidler, but was taken on the team. The decision was really good, Nepo.. performed above 2800 and gained 9 rating points.

If it works for Russia, maybe it works for Canada also.

[Valer Eugen Demian]

I will be voting against this motion as well. Russia has a much wider pool of players to choose from than Canada, so like in any other domains transplanting an idea working in one part of the World, must be done only based on local reality!...

[Victor Plotkin]

We are talking about bonus/penalty of 10 points (average). The gap of 10 points could easily be created between 2 equal players just by 1 game. This bonus is absolutely not enough to allow significantly weaker player to surpass the stronger one.

Russia was just an example. In Russia the captain chooses the players. I do not propose this system.

[Valer Eugen Demian]

Please see the other thread with my response. Let's continue the discussion there (one place only). Thanks! :)

[Michael Lo]

Please see the other thread with my response. Let's continue the discussion there (one place only). Thanks! :)

Valer, which thread, you have a link to it? Thanks.